President Obama’s campaign expands its 2012 map

Hi guys,

Busy day, I’ll try to catch up later. Just wanted to post the interesting parts from this Politico (Yuck!!!!) story. I’ll save you from reading the RW garbage.


CHICAGO — President Barack Obama’s campaign team is gaming out complex state-by-state scenarios for 2012 that anticipate uphill battles in recession-ravaged blue states — and new opportunities in Arizona and Georgia.

Their underlying assumption is that the GOP presidential field remains so fluid – and the country’s economic outlook so devilishly unpredictable – that Obama must construct robust grassroots field operations in nearly every competitive state in order to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes and win re-election.
If the famously expanded “Obama map” of 2008 was a gesture of emancipation from the cramped Democratic geography of the party’s past presidential campaigns, the equally big 2012 map is a reflection of the reality that there’s not yet a way to know the combination of red, blue and purple states that will add up to victory.

“We are preparing a variety of scenarios to get to 270. We are not putting our cards on any one state and don’t foresee doing that,” Obama campaign manager Jim Messina told POLITICO, rebuffing GOP suggestions that the president’s electoral horizons are shrinking.

“We’re building our ground campaign now,” Messina said, adding that “2011 is about infrastructure.”


Messina would not confirm the content of the half-dozen or so campaign scenarios floating around Obama headquarters – but other Democrats say one map points to alternative pathways if the president underperforms in the Midwest, especially in Ohio, which has suffered disproportionately from the economic downturn, and where Democrats suffered heavy losses in 2010.

And that could likely spark an intensive push in the Mountain West, where squeaker victories by Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) last November have revived Democratic hopes.

On the flip side, a worse-than-expected trend in the critical states of Colorado or Nevada by mid-2012 could force the campaign to shift resources back east to the more traditional battleground Midwest.

Virtually all of the scenarios envision Obama winning either North Carolina or Virginia, centerpieces of his 2008 win and the biggest prizes of the moderating demographic shifts that have opened up parts of the upper south to Democrats. And Obama, who pushed through the auto bailout amid GOP opposition, is performing well in Michigan, a state which would otherwise be ripe for Republicans.

Still, Obama’s team does acknowledge one area of probable contraction: Indiana, which has, for all intents and purposes turned red despite Obama’s 30,000-vote margin of victory there three years ago.

Indiana will attract fewer Obama resources initially for 2012, “but we could make a late play there like we did last time,” said a senior campaign official.


If the map is still vague, the entrance of former governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota into the presidential race has given Obama’s Chicago-based team a key element of his re-election: A new crop of GOP targets.

On Monday, Pawlenty rolled into Obama’s hometown to declare the president’s economic policies a failure, attack “Obamacare” and dub the president a “champion practitioner of class warfare” for not embracing his proposal to slash business taxes.

Obama strategist David Axelrod was ready for it.

“You have to question the credibility of a guy who would leave his state with a $6.2 billion deficit,” Axelrod said between bites at the back table in Manny’s, a working-class Chicago cafeteria that serves as his second home and more-or-less permanent focus group.

Axelrod, responding to Romney’s claim that Obama “failed America” by not reducing joblessness, added: “It felt like rhetoric in search of an idea… He’s tethered to his own history; His state ranked 47th in job creation [when he was governor] and that would have been lower if it hadn’t been for Katrina” and the resulting job losses suffered by Gulf states because of the hurricane.

Even so, the 2012 map is a product of what Messina has been telling donors privately for months: Next year will be a lot more challenging for Obama than the 2008 general elections against John McCain.

// snip

To that list, Obama hopes to add two new states: Georgia – viewed by the campaign as North Carolina’s demographic “Mini Me,” which Obama lost by 5 points; and Arizona, seen as a stretch possibility if Obama can ride the Hispanic population explosion and backlash against Gov. Jan Brewer’s immigration crackdown.

“We reject the 2000 and 2004 model,” said a senior Obama campaign aide. “There are some demographic changes in Arizona, and McCain won’t be running this time. We think it’s in play.”


Yet Obama’s campaign veterans say they’ve hear all of this before. Obama’s finance and field staffs, led by Rufus Gifford and Mitch Stewart respectively, have been working up budgets for states to maximize turnout and re-create the high-energy atmosphere of Obama’s 2008 operation. They have also begun opening dozens of field offices and recruiting a new generation of college-aged organizers to take major new roles.

Moreover, local organizers have been given the authority to pitch Stewart and other officials on getting involved in local Democratic races and other fights to help build relationships and give their operatives valuable live-fire experience.

They played just such a cameo role in Rep. Kathy Hochul’s come-from-behind victory in New York’s 26th congressional district. Obama aides say they are also likely to be involved in efforts to recall GOP state legislators in Wisconsin and in pushing for the rollback of SB-5, the Ohio law curtailing some collective bargaining rights of state employees.



99 thoughts on “President Obama’s campaign expands its 2012 map

  1. Jim Messina talks too much, methinks. But anyhoo, how sweet would it be to win Arizona? Long shot, but it sure would be quite the feather in the cap. Grassroots organizers, unite!

    The pics of Gibbs’ son are too cute — he’s growing so fast. My prez looks handsome and swaggerific with the Auburn Tigers (they better enjoy the championship while they can). Glad PBO got to have some fun.

    Have a great day, everyone :-D!

  2. TPM is trolling about how President Obama will lose on the economy in 2012 and acting like the sky is falling.

    If the people weren’t so damned stupid to give the House back to the Republicans and the gavel to Speaker Boner, perhaps the economy would be recovering faster. But nooooooo, it’s Obama’s fault that the House Republicans have not produced ONE bill addressing jobs. Just ideological nonsense about defunding NPR, Planned Parenthood, legalizing rape, and of course the RyanScare Road to Ruin.

    It’s like these clowns in the media forget how horribly bad the economy was in 2008, was Obama President then?

    It seems like besides WeinerGate and Palintopia, all the media has is trolling against Obama… and they wonder why less and less folks are paying attention to them. But then again, it’s the same media that obsessed over Obama’s birth certificate because Donald Trump said so.

    I’m so glad I turned the doom and gloom media off, I have no worries about POTUS winning again in 2012. When push comes to shove, he’s always many steps ahead of the game, he’s got this!

  3. I think they should just focus on 270 and not obsess about losing several states. It’s the electoral vote that matters, after all. Also, let’s hope they don’t give too much of they strategy away.

  4. Hi. This is Faith. I signed up for wordpress as ’61andFemale’. Being 61 sucks. I can’t even remember my password if I need to log in again!

    Trying to stay positive today. Although we’re getting Noah’s flood in Chicago today.

  5. They may have other strategies that they are keeping under wraps. I think they know better than that.

  6. It’s all narrative building. It’s also meant to suss out the opposing side’s playbook. remember, Plouffe did the same in 2008.

  7. this is all intended to rattle the opposition. Settling on 270 is Democrats did in 2000 and 2004 and we lost waiting for Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 to get to the magic number. No we don’t give Repugs that satisfaction of a retreat from the 2008 strategy. We camouflage it and put other scenarios in play. Let the Repugs spend their obscene monies defending turf.


  9. Morning! I’m with you, Esmerelda. Don’t blab the strategy all over the place!Bet the MSM would cover THAT! No one would be happier to see AZ go for PBO…I think it’s a stretch.I guess it depends on who gets to run against him.Sorry, but this state is full of people that vote against their best interest, and that truly believe, no matter how pathetic the candidate, that a Republican ill ALWAYS do a better job. Always. Why do you think we have such a corrupt state gov? Brewer, Pierce, Arpaio, Tom Horne, the list is endless! Sorry, but they aren’t very knowledgable about the realities of what’s been going on, and how we got here. They don’t WANT to know.I’d be thrilled, and will work hard to make it happen, but it will be an uphill climb, to be sure.

  10. They never will give away their strategy. On the other hand, we need to stop yelling to the rooftops what we are afraid of, too, because that is giving away a lot of information. More “Yes, we can” is in order.

  11. Josh Marshal is on Twitter non stop celebrating new clicks record for TPM. How do you think he got this record? He took the Huffington Post way. This all about traffic.

    Having said that, bad economy *is* going to make 2012 very very difficult for us, and I think we should be honest about it and be ready to fight very hard for this president. Voters really don’t care who destroyed their lives, they will always blame the president. American voters are very good at voting against their own interests.

  12. THIS: “You have to question the credibility of a guy who would leave his state with a $6.2 billion deficit,” Axelrod said between bites at the back table in Manny’s, a working-class Chicago cafeteria that serves as his second home and more-or-less permanent focus group. ”

    Yep, ole Tim Paw left our state in a shambles, and now the Rethugs are still obstructing Gov. Mark Dayton on the budget.

  13. Two things. Talking about the electoral map is not giving away strategy. What it does do is give the republicans pause about how and where they will need to spend their money. And I don’t see any way the Repubs will have the money that Obama will have. Even the CoC and rove’s groups will have to consider where they spend money.

    I am sure none of them thought they may have to spend money in Georgia or Arizone. Now they have to reconsider that.

    Secondly, Booman has an interesting post today. It basically states that if Obama wins it will bve a rout. If he loses it could be close.

    Personally, I tend to think the former, which, if it happens, woudl have major impact on the Congressional and state wide races.

  14. I concur, zizi. the Rethugs will continue with the race-baiting ads and fear mongering amongst their base, which they consider RED states.

  15. The Media is acting like the President has lost in 2012. I think that is because they want a horse race and close election for the ratings and to keep people tuned in.

    I turned off the cable news months ago and I have not missed it. When I do occasionally turn it off, it is depressing and not worth the anxiety it causes.

    One thing the MSM forgets is OH and WI and several other states are getting a taste of a crazy right winger Governor who are union busting and laying off teachers and workers. There are governors refusing the high speed rail and other projects that could get people back to work. Ohio is still possible as while people are suffering ; they are watching their governor run roughshod over workers and acting like a dictator.

  16. Good Morning, It seems to be this is the kind of story we swamp via twitter, FB, emails, etc. Pointing out some of their snark.

  17. I have this feeling it will be closer than it was in 2008i but that the President will still win a second term. Some of that is based on the poor field of candidates presented by the Republicans and how the teabaggers will end up selecting the nominee as the Republicans have moved so far right.

  18. Lots of rain, but at least it isn’t 100 degrees like it felt the last few days. And if you think 61 sucks, wait til you reach my age. Being 64 (in 2 weeks) is horrible. One year away from Medicare and soon to reach official retirement age, which I won’t be actually able to afford to do for several years yet, thanks to Reaganomics.

  19. Bwd: here is an analogy! A ballclub was supposed to be 30 games over 500 bc they have 5 all stars on the team!
    Well, the first half of the season has gone by and this said ballclub is only playing 500 ball, or even wins and losses.
    Does management then gut the whole team and put in minor leaguers??? Really?


  21. That is bc they have already started to campaign snd the president is busy governing!
    He might have to start campaigning more and holding rallies at universities.
    They are trying to get to him before he starts to campaign…
    Also, McCain is asking panetta if we should stay in Iraq and panetta says yes!

  22. I stopped reading TPM when it started turning into HuffPuff Lite. Their clicks are up because they link to one sentence posts that are repeats of what’s on their front page. Just grossly stupid stuff. I used to read it daily but it’s a mess and I’ve had some email exchanges with Josh who is just very snarky and rude.

  23. Of course not, but none of this rational can work on people if they’re out of work. It’s the human nature + some real voters stupidity. You saw what happened in 2010. Who would have thought that people will give these bastards the keys back?

    What I’m saying is that we need to stay very focused and very serious and to be ready for a huge fight. This is going to be much more difficult than 2008 – and, as it turn out, much more important.

  24. Hi Ametia, how is the budget thing going in MN? I have friends in MN and they are bracing themselves for layoffs. Her husband is a firefighter and one I have several friends who are state workers.

  25. I really hope that PBO has no intention of leaving troops in Iraq and is going to bring a big number back from Afghan over the next year. With the country is such bad mood, he really should give people – especially his supporters – something to feel good about. It would be a big mistake to stay in Iraq. I think even today most people don’t blame PBO for the economy. They know this is all on Bush. But ending the war in Iraq was a massive campaign promise. I can’t see him breaking it.

  26. The President never puts politics above policy. He will do what he thinks is best even if it costs him. That’s what I admire so much about him though I understand it can sometimes be disheartening to his supporters.

    Also, Obama doesn’t always do what Panetta says. Remember the OBL photos?

  27. Panetta and Gates have made themselves clear we should stay in Iraq but Obama’s team has not changed it’s tune on the troop removal strategy. People can have their opinions but Obama has his own. Unless I hear something different, troop removal from Afghanistan in July as planned and all troops out of Iraq Dec. 31, 2011.

  28. He has already indicated that he will stay with the agreement put out there by Bush and withdraw all troops by the end of the year. I do think he has to withdraw at least 10,000 from Afghanistan in July and keep it going so that we are below 50,000 by next summer.

    I was ticked to hear a poll (ABC, I think) that said the people trust the Repuublcians more on the economy and the deficit. It means that there hasn’t been enough push back on the Repuublcians not pushing through anything to create jobs and a total misunderstanding of the whole debt ceiling debate.

    Reading LOE’s and comments to them on my local paper website shows me that the RW is really oushing to get their words out there. The left needs to do more in that regard.

  29. Even before I read your post Politicaljunkessa, I was wondering why Messina are revealing their strategy like this. We can be our own worst enemies sometimes. I don’t understand why he is talking so darn much. I agree about Gibb’s son. 🙂

  30. Bob Shrum weighs in on the media hysteria and outlines the three issues that set everyones hair on fire………………


    Forget the noisy declarations about lousy economic news sinking Obama’s re-election. The president is still on track for a second term

    ………Then, while Weiner was being forced from belligerent lying to Breitbarted confession, three other stories recast the prevailing outlook on the presidential campaign.

    First, the unemployment numbers, both a survey of payrolls and the generally more accurate Labor Department count, reported a sharp decline in job creation during May — to barely a fifth of April’s total of 235,000 and a third of the generally accepted forecast. Joblessness rose by a tenth of a point, to 9.1 percent.

    Second, The Times headlined an analysis, widely repeated, that no incumbent president since FDR has won a second term when unemployment was above 7.2 percent.

    Third, just as Weiner was concluding his mea culpa, there was more bad news for the White House in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll. Nearly 60 percent of people offer a negative verdict on Obama’s stewardship of the economy. Then the clincher: While he defeats most Republicans by a margin of 10 to 17 points, the president is now tied with Mitt Romney among all Republicans, and still worse, three points behind among registered voters.

    Even from NYU’s campus in Florence, Italy, I could feel the gears of political prognosis shifting back home.

  31. something is very wrong on that poll because another came out just days ago that says Obama is more trusted on the economy and that Dems beat Repubs on what matters to the middle class/poor, etc.

  32. Hi Meta! I have had email exchanges with Josh too . Rude, snarky, and defensive. At least he answers his mail from readers….and maybe ultimately reader’s comments/complaints it make him think.

  33. I called every voter in Indiana last time—–well, almost——and I will again. I wouldn’t give up on that state. I found Obama supporters not just in Indy and Bloomington but in some real surprising corners. My daughter canvassed in Indy and she said it was a laugher—-it was Obama, Obama, Obama, Obama—-solid up and down all the streets.

  34. You may recall they did this the last time, the press had a good laugh and they did exactly what they said they would do. I can tell you that these boys know what they are doing.

    I hate this new reply system.

  35. Shrum is supposed to be a political genius, yet every campaign he was in charge of was a losing campaign. My briother went to college with him and considers him a first class jerk.

  36. The President never puts politics above policy.

    That is true, but honestly, I can’s see how staying in Iraq can be a good policy. Beside, sadly, we should play politics. Nothing is more important than keeping him at the WH.

  37. And crazy Gov. Rick Scott is the biggest gift the Dems could have ever hoped for in Florida. His poll numbers are in the toilet as the public is in shock and are furious about all the damage he is doing to the state. I still can’t figure out how anyone there thought voting for a known Medicare fraudster was a great idea.

  38. We need to stop helping to pass the meme of a bad economy. I have’nt seen no soup kitchen and i am glad we have a president in office who has worked to stop that for happening. We need to pass that meme. People are spending money on what they need and not what they want. Im sick of the doom and gloom. We claim to not pay attention to the MSM. but we are sure passing their meme. Chill He got this.

  39. Polls are confusing and inaccurate as the past few days have shown (Obama s Romney). The media needs to create a close race for their ratings. I think it’s a losing battle, though as I haven’t met many people my age who watch the news. That includes my American friends who keep me informed about what’s going on through YouTube and Facebook.

  40. Just announced on The View that Obama will have a Broadway fundraiser at Whoopi’s produced show, “Sister Act”. I think that’s a new concept—-the Broadway connection.


    I live in Canada but I have family in Indiana and they are Obamabots
    too, they all volunteered for him in 2008 and will be involved again in
    2012. And don’t count out Dems abroad either, President Obama
    has offered internships to White House to American Students studying abroad.
    JMO I think President Obama and his re-election team has heavy boots-on the ground strategy,
    because I am sure they realize they can’t relay on the MSM to get their message out.

  42. I think BWD’s concerns are well-founded, and overconfidence is dangerous. This is going to have to an all hands on deck effort by us. PBO is at around 48-50%, though, which is pretty damned good.

    And gas prices are down, and consumer confidence is up.

    The real deal is going to come down to this debt-ceiling crisis on the horizon. Expect PBO to pounce, particularly if it becomes obvious to people that the Repulicans are trying to create a double-dip.

    See Benen’s latest on this…

  43. We should emphasize how close we were to complete disaster. I don’t think people are really aware of that. Or they’ve completely forgotten.

  44. The GOP want us to believe their B.S , We all know how he run his campaign all fro the grounf baby.
    The GOP are scare SHIT what they are selling do not past the test. so GO Obama yes we can.

  45. and don’t forget how incredibly unpopular the new Republican governors are in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, New Jersey, and probably Penn…

    I am hopeful, but PBO isn’t campaigning so he doesn’t get attention. When he campaigns, and educates people, he will be in good shape.

  46. I certainly expect him to go out and speak to the American people about the debt ceiling issue. It’s ming-boggling that so many people are against raising it. How uninformed can people be?

  47. Read the second and third pages. That was just the intro to set the scene.

  48. We will never forget how bad things were before Obama took office never, never. nevery. And what do the GOP have done so far? Nada , Zero Shit to improve the economy of our country? I amo not worried.

  49. No, just that his analysis should always be taken with a grain of salt. As I mentioned earlier, I would go with Booman’s analysis.

  50. How uninformed? In this country, with awful media and a Republican Party which exists only through lying, very uninformed.

  51. Let’s all remember how well The Obama campaign run in 2008 was fantastic. smart well run.
    they have very smart people on the campaign office.

  52. He may not be a good campaign manager, but he is a great spokesperson for the dem party. I wish we would see more of him.

  53. If the republicans had a decent candidate, the election might be close. But they don’t. There’s nobody among the buffoons that have annouced that PBO wouldn’t beat by double digits.

    Obama/Biden will run a full-throated campaign regardless but unless they have a serious opponent, there’s no contest.

  54. I left tpm when sargent left. Followed him to his wapo site but soon left that too because of resident rw trolls. Never considered josh a biggie in the blogosphere.

    bwd, nothing can be done about the new commenting box ?

  55. guys – the PREZ is “leaking” his strategy to let the GOP know they will have to spend zillions of dollars to defeat Barack Obama. Letting them know they cannot take Georgia nor Arizona off the table is the same strategy they used to win Indiana, Pennsylvania and Virginia. It’s 11-dimensional chess. Don’t forget that!

  56. I think that all this talk about the debt ceiling not being raised and the potential for economic catastrophe has really hurt the consumer confidence in the country and made people more pessimistic. This is exactly what happened during the government shutdown/budget crisis. Then, they got a deal and people calmed down and consumer confidence went back up. Once the debt ceiling has been raised, I think that things will turn around again. I do like that the Obama administration is starting to float some ideas to jump start the economy. Once the debt ceiling has been raised, I think Obama needs to give a prime time address with his job plan and urging Congress to do start concentrating on jobs. That would shine a big light on the fact that the Republican House has passed zero job bills so far.

    As for Messina talking about their strategy, it is a smart plan. He isn’t revealing anything and he is putting out positive spin for the Obama re-election campaign. They need something to counter all the negative spin from the media right now. The last thing we want is a narrative to set in that Obama is doomed.

  57. What I remember about his 2008 campaign, they did many things under the radar and by the time HRC or that old guy caught on, it was too late.

  58. But I think we have to point out what some states have already experienced when they’ve been fed up with the President and put their futures in the hands of the current Republicans batch. It can only get worse if they have the top seat. These joker Republicans aren’t interested in solving any problems – they won’t care about the economy if they take over. I think if we can make people see reason (please don’t laugh) then they will realize that it’s better to stick with the guy who is actually trying out different ideas against impossible odds, rather than change horses to the very jokers who are causing the economy to stagger along. I just can’t believe that people will be that stupid.

  59. The media wants a horse race to boost ratings, IMO. They will do absolutely anything to increase viewership. They also know they control the message. In 2010 the media pounded that there was an enthusiasm gap; that Republicans were fired up and that the Democrats didn’t have anything to be fired up about thus enabling a self-fulfilling prophecy. Couple with the Professional Left saying the same thing and worst, Democrats didn’t vote in the numbers we should have. In many states where Republican governors won the races were close. In we had voted we could very well be looking a different outcome.

    Our national media is controlled by corporations, even MSNBC. The number of Republicans who are booked on political shows is astounding. No pundnut pushes back on the lies and misleading information they spew. There isn’t much we can do about corporate media, other than write and call, so I think we have to use social media, email, snail-mail, door-to-door and phones to get our message out. I know we have some multimillionaires and billionaires in the Democratic Party. I sure wish they’d come together and buy a network that is independent. I know Current TV is out there, but it’s so small and not available to everyone. We need a FOX , except we need a station who will tell the truth.

  60. and I am sure the people in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and New Jersey no longer
    trust the MSM….withholding information is same as lying.

    The President was right when he told the citizens of Joplin that the cameras would leave…but he would not forget about them. President Obama is working when no one is watching or reporting about it, but the people who lives are being effected know.

  61. Two weeks ago, the polls said people trusted the President more on the economy, and two weeks before that, people trusted Martians more on the economy. At this point, the media is completely fickle. Better to believe your own eyes and friends. I usually skim over all the poll stuff – I think this President is polled every single day, and it’s always different, so it can hardly mean anything right now. Someone mentioned yesterday that they will start listening to polls in Oct 2012 – and I am inclined to agree.

  62. Romney’s op-ed on letting Detroit go bankrumpt should be enough to sink him. It says something that the media is reporting that he’s tied or beating President Obama, especially in the same month as such good news about Detroit. I think the reality on the ground is very different from what the media is reporting.

  63. WIW what a great idea the “Rent a Grandma ” is. I have been thinking along that line. Jam 65 and don’t have grandchildren yet. I would love to do that. Thanks for the information.

  64. Hell I think taking Indiana off the table (for the time being) is just to try and effect the Senate race there. If the GOP thinks they’re solid in Indiana then they might opt for the teabagger Mourdock over Lugar – which would then potentially give Donnelly a fighting chance vs Mourdock in the general.

  65. They never hid their strategy in’08, it’s just that the media ignore them. The campaign knew what was happening on the ground with all of the volunteers but we kept hearing about all the doom and gloom from the msm. I have no doubt that they are trying to scare the repugs into spending money in traditional red states. Let’s not forget that in ’08, there were those who said if Mccain was not running, PBO could have won in AZ.

  66. Good morning BWD and TOAITR family. I really do trust the President and the campaign to know what they are doing. There is a reason they gave that information to Polictico. They know what kind of rag they are. We are all fired up and ready to go. I trust the President.

  67. I agree with many that the campaign is not leaking their strategy, they are CHALLENGING the Republicans to spend money in states that are typical Republican strongholds.

    Look at how Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, all flipped from red to blue, all typical Republican states. Forcing Republicans to play defensive in these states and expanding the map to include Georgia and Arizona is chess as many others have pointed out.

    Plus the media will ignore all of this anyways. They’ll continue to play the Chicken Little doom and gloom game to put up a horse race for ratings and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. And POTUS will come out swinging and prove EVERYBODY wrong, just as he did in the 2008 Democratic primaries and the 2008 general election. People should have learned by now NEVER to underestimate Barack Obama’s intelligence and power, he’s taken politics to a whole new level.

  68. They did this throughout the entire campaign last time. No harm came from it. I am confident that they do it to make sure the other side knows they’re taking all this very seriously and have a plan. Frankly, I think it psyops.

  69. From The Washington Monthly:

    “President Obama’s re-election campaign has named Katherine Archuleta as its political director. She will be the first Latina to hold the position on a major presidential campaign.”

  70. Agreed, Zizi. I do believe these guys, all of them, have strategy sessions and agree what to put out and what not to divulge.

  71. Regarding Iraq and what McCain wants and what Panetta wants: there’s this little thing called the Iraqis. They want us out, lock, stock and barrel by the end of the year. It’s their call, not ours. We can’t stay unless they ask us to, and we won’t stay unless the President thinks there’s a real and viable reason to stay. Period.

  72. WOOT gorgeous president alert!! Man is he fine. I felt a bit embarrassed for Gibbs little boy when the helmet couldn’t fit over his head. *teehee* : ) Our potus could not see that it was struggling to go over that boy’s dome and kept pushing it. oh my. Obviously the helmet was sized for Barack’s nicely shaped head and nobody else.

    In other news I guess nobody watched the behind the scenes of the commencement speech at Booker T Washington high on BET last night. It was great, touching, and I hope they start showing more of that sort of programming. Our president is the best.

  73. I know that you and everyone here knows that it depends on how the ques is asked and who they are asking. These polls are just a way for MSM to drive ratings. They are full of it for me. They have no begun to understand this man and what he has in store for them. They need to STFU!!!!!

  74. Yep unlike the folks in the white house, that always leaks stuff to the media, the campaign will stay focused like they did in 2008.

    What a team they are. 🙂 I am so excite for this campaign I am bursting. The GOP has nobody fierce like potus and I can’t wait to see all that has happened over this president’s first term unroll in adverts, radio ads, etc etc etc. It will be a beautiful sight to behold.

  75. OMG! LMAO! Rent a Granny, indeed!

    This Granny is already employed but my only pay is hugs and kisses! Maybe Grannies can unionize? This is so fun. I passed this link to my family.


    The Republicans came after your Medicare and now they want your Social Security too. The only way to insure that you won’t lose either is to vote Democratic in all future elections. Republican’s used to be much more subtle about how they want to throw seniors into the private market to go head to head with health insurers and Wall Street, but lately the new leaders of the GOP apparently have no idea what they are getting into. When the Bush Administration flirted with it in 2005, they learned very quickly that it was a bad idea. But the new GOP feels so empowered that they think they can just come right out in the open with their stupid ideas. As a Democrat, I want to thank them.
    I don’t see any adults in the leadership of the Republican Party so I anticipate even more boneheaded moves in the next year and a half leading up to the next election. I don’t even think the complicate media can help spin them out of some these messes they’ve created. It will take a lot of distractions to keep people from seeing what is going on and the difference between the 2010 race and 2012 is that President Obama is in this race, with his bully pulpit, his 75% personal popularity and his unmatched ability to deliver a message in a clear and concise way. The only thing the Republicans have in their arsenal is their appeal to racists. And with the president at 75% personal approval, their clearly aren’t enough racists to put them over the top. It should be a fun ride to November 6, 2012.

  77. That would be me. We have a new head of the Democratic Party here and I am hoping we see a big change. However, Arizona has gone so very far to the right, it is going to be a long way back.

  78. Strategy — Right now, the President can’t be overtly aggressive while we’re still dealing with the debt ceiling, and probably wants to let his campaign steadily build in intensity.

    What this plan does is simultaneously lower expectations so the President’s base does not take his reelection for granted — his vast network of volunteers and small donors is critical, after all — *and*…

    His campaign has just announced that it will be putting virtually every state and House district in play. Remember, almost every Republican in the House is now running under the shadow of a vote to end Medicare as we know it. That’s a very heavy burden.

    But by indicating that the White House will be campaigning everywhere, on the theory that any state or set of states could be the swing votes, the President has just assured anyone and everyone thinking about running as a Democratic Senate, House or gubernatorial candidate that serious money and even more serious organizational efforts will be spent in their state and probably their district. Phone calls, “boots on the ground,” personal contacts. Plus ads. Everything a House challenger typically does not have.

    In effect, that “leak” was a recruitment ad for would-be candidates, released at a key moment when they still have time to bring in viable people, but when they aren’t trying to be too obvious about an intense push to contest as many districts and states as possible.

    Hence, if this next election turns into a wave — or a tsunami — especially against everyone perceived as voting against Medicare, then the Democrats will be positioned to challenge everyone who made that vote, and possibly to defeat most-if-not-virtually-all of them.

    Regardless of what you think of President Obama’s politics, he is clearly an intelligence of a very high order. I would not underestimate him.

  79. By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. States have the responsibility to make their voters relevant in every presidential election. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

    In the 2012 election, pundits and campaign operatives already agree that, at most, only 14 states and their voters will matter under the current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states. Candidates will not care about at least 72% of the voters- voters-in 19 of the 22 lowest population and medium-small states, and 17 medium and big states like CA, GA, NY, and TX. 2012 campaigning would be even more obscenely exclusive than 2008 and 2004. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

    Since World War II, a shift of a few thousand votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 13 presidential elections. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 6 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections. 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore’s lead of 537,179 popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 Million votes.

    Under the National Popular Vote bill, all the electoral votes from all the states that have enacted the bill would be awarded, as a bloc, to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). The bill would thus guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes.

    The Electoral College that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers but, instead, is the product of decades of evolutionary change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by 48 states of winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support is strong among Republican voters, Democratic voters, and independent voters, as well as every demographic group surveyed in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%,, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC (3), HI (4), IL (19), NJ (14), MD (11), MA (10), VT (3), and WA (13). These 8 jurisdictions possess 77 electoral votes — 29% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

  80. oldgulph,

    That is interesting.

    But, I doubt that this legislation will be passed anytime soon. And, certainly not in time for the 2012 General Election.

    But, I hope it passes someday

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